Gevo targets doubled EBITDA estimate, eyes North Dakota expansion

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) released a business update on July 15, stating that actions taken during the second quarter of 2026 are expected to more than double its previous non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA estimates for the full year.

The Englewood, Colorado-based renewable fuels company said it completed a Canada Clean Fuel Regulation carbon intensity pathway for its low-carbon ethanol with carbon capture and sequestration, opening new compliance carbon market opportunities. Sales of credits under that pathway are expected to be reflected in third-quarter 2026 financial results.

Nasdaq, Inc. retired credits representing 8,500 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent through Gevo's voluntary carbon dioxide removal credit market, which the company described as repeat business.

Gevo said it is targeting monetization of more than $70 million in Section 45Z tax credits during 2026, with cash proceeds expected to appear in second-half financial results.

The company's debottlenecking project at Gevo North Dakota, targeting low-carbon ethanol production capacity of 75 million gallons per year, is underway and on budget, with completion targeted in 2026. The project is expected to deliver 10–15% growth in ethanol output and related metrics starting in 2027.

A separate expansion project at Gevo North Dakota aims to roughly double capacity to approximately 150 million gallons per year, with a targeted completion in 2028, pending financing. Financing is targeted to close in the second half of 2026.

Completed front-end loading engineering for Project Northstar estimated construction capital expenditure at approximately $600 million, with site-specific costs rising by roughly $100 million due to soil conditions and logistics at the North Dakota location.

The company said it is considering winding down all activities related to sustainable aviation fuel production in Lake Preston, South Dakota, to concentrate on Project Northstar. Any such wind-down would result in significant non-cash write-downs, though no additional cash expenditures are anticipated.

Cost optimization initiatives are expected to reduce corporate run-rate expenses by more than $5 million in 2026. Gevo said it plans to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 6.

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