Jefferies upgrades Shopify to Buy on AI commerce tailwinds, sees 30% upside

Investing.com -- Jefferies on Monday has upgraded Shopify to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $160 from $140, saying the e-commerce platform is well positioned to benefit from the rise of agentic AI commerce while expecting stronger-than-consensus second-quarter results and additional growth catalysts over the next year.

The brokerage said third-party data points to upside in Shopify's second-quarter gross merchandise volume (GMV), while recent changes to its partner incentive program should support near-term growth and improve the company's long-term sales and marketing cost structure. It also believes Shopify is likely to introduce another price increase after rolling out new AI features, providing an additional earnings tailwind in 2027.

The upgrade reflects growing confidence on Wall Street that Shopify can sustain above-market growth by combining AI-driven commerce capabilities with improving fundamentals. Jefferies sees multiple catalysts—including stronger second-quarter performance, revamped partner incentives, potential pricing power and continued AI product innovation—driving both revenue growth and margin expansion despite a softer consumer backdrop.

Jefferies argued that Shopify is emerging as a key infrastructure provider for "agentic commerce," where AI agents increasingly handle product discovery and purchasing. The firm expects this shift to boost merchant stickiness, expand Shopify's role in the commerce ecosystem and generate incremental GMV over the coming years, strengthening its long-term growth profile.

Jefferies noted that Shopify's revised partner commission structure, effective from August 2026, encourages partners to focus on larger merchants, cross-selling additional products and post-launch merchant success while capping long-term commission payouts. The brokerage expects the changes to enhance long-term unit economics even if they introduce some execution risk.

The brokerage also said Shopify has not raised prices on most subscription plans since 2023 despite adding AI capabilities such as Sidekick. It estimates a price increase similar to the last hike could lift its 2027 revenue forecast by about 3% to 4%, with most of the benefit flowing to profitability.

Analysts estimates that if AI-powered shopping shifts even a small share of global e-commerce spending toward independent merchants, Shopify could capture meaningful incremental GMV, reinforcing its view that the company's shares remain attractive following their pullback from recent highs.

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