Morgan Stanley tracks steel imports for North America

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley reported that June 2026 license data shows steel imports for North America declined 6% month-over-month and 9% year-over-year. The data indicates import spreads have widened compared to May, with hot-rolled coil prices reaching $1,155 per short ton. Domestic lead times also increased in June.

The June license data points to a decrease of 0.12 million tons month-over-month and 0.18 million tons year-over-year. Imports of flat products rose 3% and pipe and tube products increased 18% month-over-month. Semi-finished products fell 5%, long products dropped 30%, and stainless products decreased 11% month-over-month.

Morgan Stanley attributed the lower imports in June compared to May to a narrowing of import spreads in April after peaking in late March. The bank also cited heightened uncertainty around foreign supply and reduced availability of imported material following the start of the Middle East conflict.

Total year-to-date imports of approximately 10.3 million tons through June are down 23% compared to 2025, primarily due to lower flat product imports, which fell 35% versus the 2025 year-to-date period.

The hot-rolled coil import spread averaged $127 per ton in June, up $6 per ton from May's $121 per ton, and remains above the last 12-month average of $97 per ton. Spot domestic hot-rolled coil prices climbed from $930 per short ton in early January 2026 to $1,155 per short ton on June 10. The Platts DDP Houston import price increased to $1,000 per short ton from $820 per short ton at the beginning of the year.

Imports remain below pre-50% Section 232 levels. Traders generally suggest a spread above approximately $100 per ton makes foreign material attractive. The wider spread month-over-month increases the economic incentive to import.

Nucor's (NYSE: NUE) weekly consumer spot hot-rolled coil prices remained steady for two consecutive weeks at $1,130 per short ton but have increased $180 per short ton year-to-date. Hot-rolled coil lead times averaged 7.6 weeks in June, up from 7.0 weeks in May and above the five-year average of 5.5 weeks.

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