Stifel lifts Shopify to Buy, sees agentic commerce as next growth catalyst

Investing.com -- Stifel upgraded Shopify to Buy and raised its price target for the stock to $150 from $110 in a note on Friday, arguing that a 23% year-to-date decline has created an attractive entry point for what the firm described as a high-quality compounder with a widening competitive moat.

Analyst J. Parker Lane said Shopify is "writing the agentic commerce playbook" while continuing to gain share across legacy replatforming, enterprise, B2B, international and payments.

Based on survey work and industry conversations, Stifel sees "a realistic path to 30%-plus revenue growth in 2026 and sustained mid-20s beyond."

Lane pointed to first-quarter gross merchandise volume of $101 billion, up 35% year-on-year, as clear evidence of share gains against a U.S. retail e-commerce market that grew just 9.8% in the same period.

Management described the strength as broad-based across geographies, merchant sizes and channels.

Stifel highlighted several growth vectors supporting the upgrade. Enterprise is inflecting, with the number of large merchants doing more than $100 million in GMV on Shopify having "nearly doubled over the last two years."

B2B GMV grew 80% in the first quarter, while international GMV rose 45%, with cross-border representing 16% of total volume. Lane noted that despite the U.S. accounting for 40% of global e-commerce sales excluding China, it represented 63% of Shopify's 2025 revenue, leaving significant international upside.

Stifel said Shopify's disciplined operating model and capital allocation strategy "give the company flexibility in a rapidly evolving landscape" as agentic commerce moves from infancy toward scale.

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