Global oil output to return to pre-war levels by end of year, U.S. says

Investing.com -- Global crude oil production is set to recover to pre-war levels by the end of 2026, according to a US Energy Information Administration report released Tuesday.

The agency said most shut-in production from the war will resume by the first quarter of 2027. This represents a faster recovery timeline than previous projections, which anticipated flows through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize by early next year and a multi-year disruption to some Middle East production following the Iran war.

Global energy markets continue to adjust after what the report describes as the biggest supply disruption in history. Some vessels still face attacks while traveling through the strait.

The market is preparing for a near-term supply surplus as barrels previously held in the Persian Gulf reach buyers.

The EIA revised its Brent crude price forecast to an average of $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027. The previous forecast called for $79 per barrel in 2027.

Brent crude traded around $74 per barrel on Tuesday morning.

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