Citi says SpaceX stock has path to $900+ valuation. Here’s how

Investing.com -- Citi launched coverage of Space Exploration Technologies with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, implying roughly 25% upside by year-end, while also outlining a longer-term path toward a valuation that could exceed $900 per share.

The bank said its initial target represents "a milestone along the path to $900+ which becomes realistic assuming key engineering achievements are demonstrated at scale."

A successful deployment of Starship would establish the most affordable and scalable route to unlocking the economic potential of space, giving SpaceX access to trillion-dollar markets that "no other company can realistically tap into,” Citi analysts wrote.

“SPCX is at the beginning of a particularly catalyst-rich 2-3 years which we expect will result in the company establishing dominant positions in multiple high-value markets – namely Connectivity and AI,” they added.

Citi’s move comes ahead of SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday, which is expected to lead to a wave of passive buying. Several Wall Street brokerages began coverage of the more-than-$2 trillion rocket and satellite company with largely bullish outlooks. JPMorgan estimated last month that the index addition could funnel $4.3 billion into SpaceX shares from passive funds.

Citi’s bullish view rests on what the bank views as “unrivaled launch capabilities for the foreseeable future,” which it said make the company uniquely positioned to scale space infrastructure and capture trillion-dollar opportunities in two areas: a dominant global telecom business built on connectivity, and a dominant AI business spanning enterprise and orbital AI.

These advantages are amplified by "Extreme Vertical Integration," Citi noted, which it argues reinforces the company’s ability to lower costs, increase throughput, and deliver at a scale competitors cannot replicate.

Citi’s $200 year-end 2026 price target is derived from an average of three methodologies. The Wall Street firm’s long-term valuation level of more than $900 is based on an illustrative framework that credits SpaceX with sustaining supernormal growth rates at scale, allowing it to maintain a premium relative to "The Trillion Dollar Comps."

At the same time, Citi flagged several risks to its thesis, including technology, manufacturing, and operating execution, as well as regulatory risks specific to each business vertical.

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