Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo slash shipment targets up to 30% amid memory crunch - Nikkei

Investing.com -- China's three largest Android smartphone makers have cut their 2026 shipment targets by as much as 30%, according to reporting from Nikkei Asia, a sweeping retreat that illustrates how thoroughly AI-server demand has upended the global memory market and the consumer electronics companies that depend on it.

Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU) is the most direct listed beneficiary of the shortage that is squeezing these handset brands: the company reported record Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion and EPS of $25.11, both well above forecasts, as AI infrastructure customers absorb memory supply that would otherwise reach smartphone assembly lines. Micron shares, up more than 820% over the past year, were trading around $1,137.87 early Tuesday, slightly below their last close of $1,145.28.

Xiaomi Corp (HK:1810), the world's third-largest smartphone brand, had already set a 2026 forecast of around 135 million units, itself a sharp pullback from the 170 million handsets it shipped in 2025. According to Nikkei Asia, it has now cut that figure by a further 30%, bringing the revised target to roughly 95 million units, with a warning to suppliers that the number could fall even lower if component supply does not improve. Oppo and Vivo have similarly lowered their 2026 forecasts to below 90 million units each, while Honor, which shipped a record 71 million phones in 2025, told suppliers it may be unable to sustain that growth this year.

The root cause is structural rather than cyclical. A single Nvidia AI processor tray consumes low-power DRAM chips that would otherwise fill smartphone production allocations, according to the report. Cloud service providers have locked up large portions of memory production through long-term agreements, pushing handset makers to the back of allocation queues with little near-term recourse. Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and HP have chosen to raise device prices to pass through the cost surge; Chinese OEMs, selling into price-sensitive markets, are instead cutting volume.

The financial math behind the cuts is daunting. Gartner projected that the memory crunch will reduce global smartphone shipments by 8.4% in 2026 and push average smartphone prices 13% higher versus 2025 levels, while PC shipments will fall 10.4% and PC prices rise 17%, according to CNBC.

Gartner senior director analyst Ranjit Atwal put the severity in stark terms: "What's happening this time around, compared to previous times that memory prices have gone up, is the extent with which prices of memory is increasing. Secondly is the length of time that we think prices will remain high. This one is looking like it won't be until the end of 2027 before we get to any type of regional pricing," he told CNBC on June 26.

The market reaction on Tuesday underscores the divergence the shortage is creating across the supply chain. Xiaomi shares in Hong Kong fell as low as HKD 21.34, within a few cents of their 52-week low of HKD 21.30, on volume of roughly 174 million shares, well above the three-month average of 157 million. The stock has lost approximately 64% over the past year. Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (KS:005930), by contrast, gained 3.41% to KRW 334,000 in Tuesday's Seoul session, buoyed by reports highlighting the Korean chipmaker's aggressive AI-cycle capital investment bets alongside the persistent memory tightness that benefits its DRAM margins.

For investors tracking where this ends, Micron's Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings, tentatively scheduled for September 29, will be the next major public checkpoint on memory pricing trajectory and supply allocation into year-end. If Micron's guidance signals continued tightness well into 2027, as Gartner's Atwal suggested is likely, Chinese smartphone brands may face further downward revisions before the year is out. Whether Xiaomi issues a formal update to its revenue guidance in response to the revised volume target is a key question for investors in the stock, and one that has yet to be answered publicly.

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