Goldman "broadly" raises estimates for LTL and truckload stocks

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings estimates and price targets across the less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload transportation sectors, citing improving freight fundamentals and the potential for a stronger-than-expected recovery.

In a research note, Goldman Sachs said it is “broadly” increasing forecasts for LTL and truckload companies through 2028 while also lifting its “blue sky” scenarios, which model outcomes if the rebound from the freight downturn proves more pronounced than currently expected.

The bank acknowledged that trucking stocks have already rallied sharply, noting that LTL and truckload shares are up about 70% on average since its June 2025 sector upgrade and 46% year-to-date.

Still, Goldman Sachs said “the early cycle momentum and the very start of the earnings upgrade cycle keeps us involved in the names on a relative basis.”

For LTL carriers, Goldman Sachs pointed to recent mid-quarter updates showing second-quarter volumes and, in some cases, pricing trends running ahead of previous forecasts.

While shipment volumes remain down year-over-year, the pace of decline is easing faster than expected.

The bank also highlighted signs of a potential volume inflection later this year, supported by improving manufacturing indicators and favorable fuel-related profit dynamics.

In truckload transportation, Goldman Sachs said spot rates continue to exceed expectations. Excluding fuel, rates are averaging about 30% higher year-over-year during the second quarter, with more recent pricing gains topping 40%.

The firm said contract pricing is also improving, with carriers indicating rate increases could reach high-single-digit or even low-double-digit percentages on renewals. As a result, Goldman Sachs raised revenue-per-mile and profit forecasts for the second half of 2026 and beyond.

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