Tesla needs to deliver on Robotaxi milestones for shares to find momentum: analyst

Investing.com -- Tesla is on track for a solid second quarter on deliveries and earnings, but the stock's longer-term trajectory hinges on execution in robotaxi and humanoid robotics, according to Wolfe Research.

Analyst Emmanuel Rosner estimates Tesla will deliver 420,000 units globally in Q2, approximately 10% above the year-ago period and ahead of the current consensus of around 400,000 units.

Rosner projects Q2 automotive gross margins excluding credits in the low-18% range, up from 17.7% in Q1 excluding warranty true-ups, and sees earnings per share of approximately $0.50–$0.52, ahead of the $0.45 consensus.

Despite the constructive near-term setup, Wolfe Research cautioned that Tesla's core businesses represent only a small piece of the company's valuation.

"The much bigger part, in our view, is tied to confidence around their longer-term (and more significant) initiatives across Robotaxi, Humanoids, and ancillary AI services," Rosner wrote, adding that "ramp curves are shallower than previously expected, most notably in robotaxi," with Tesla likely to miss its first-half deployment targets.

Rosner flagged intensifying competition as a key risk, citing Waymo's planned expansion into 20 cities this year, Mobileye's deployment of 100 robotaxis by 2027, and accelerating humanoid production from Figure AI and Boston Dynamics.

“TSLA stock has continued to hold up well even as investors gravitate towards SPCX, with the market assuming increasing likelihood of an eventual TSLA/SPCX merger, which provides downside support,” the analyst added. “But any such deal would likely not happen until mid-2027 (at the earliest), in our view.”

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