Raymond James sees North America softline retail growth accelerate in Q1 earnings

Investing.com -- Raymond James reported that 76% of approximately 45 companies in softlines retail, global brands and digital commerce beat revenue expectations in the first quarter of 2026, with results averaging 220 basis points above consensus. About 90% of the companies exceeded earnings per share estimates by 17% above Street expectations.

North America growth accelerated to 7% in the first quarter from 6% in the fourth quarter, with strong performance from luxury and digital commerce sectors. Company commentary noted macro uncertainty, cautious inventory buying, and pressure on lower-income consumers.

In the athleisure and footwear category, Adidas reported strong results while Nike posted modestly positive growth in its fiscal third quarter ending in February. Puma and Under Armour remained under pressure as their turnaround efforts continued. On and HOKA, owned by Deckers, posted double-digit growth. Birkenstock slightly missed expectations while Crocs showed mixed results.

Premium and luxury brands showed varied performance. LVMH, Kering, Hermes and Hugo Boss all reported revenue declines. North American brands including Tapestry, Ralph Lauren and Canada Goose posted strong growth. Capri remained a work in progress.

Digital commerce showed the highest subsector growth, with secondhand and marketplace companies including The RealReal, thredUP, ETSY and eBay reporting growth. Companies with home category exposure underperformed.

Apparel brands and retailers mostly exceeded expectations, led by Levi's, Urban Outfitters and American Eagle. Multi-brand retailer results indicated pressure for lower-income consumers, while off-price retailers TJX, ROST and BURL outperformed.

Europe growth remained consistent quarter-over-quarter in athleisure, footwear and luxury, though Nike and Hermes saw sequential worsening. Asia-Pacific growth accelerated across all tracked subsectors.

Street estimates for second quarter revenue growth increased by 10 basis points since the beginning of first quarter earnings season. Digital commerce estimates rose 250 basis points, partially offset by declines in luxury, specialty apparel and athleisure footwear.

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