Jack In The Box (JACK) PT Lowered to $14 at UBS

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger lowered the price target on Jack In The Box (NASDAQ: JACK) to $14.00 (from $23.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst commented, "JACK's F2Q results & commentary highlighted weaker than expected sss driven by transaction declines, with focus on accelerating 'Jack on Track' initiatives to support traffic & sss improvements. Updated FY26 guidance included sss of down LSD% (vs. -1% to +1% prior) and adj EBITDA of $225-235MM (from $225-240MM) on ~17% (from 17-18%) company restaurant margins, while total units of 2,050-2,100 (20 new openings & 50-100 closures) was reiterated. Strategic focus remains on strengthening the Jack in the Box brand performance via execution of strategic plans, w/ drivers including value / offers, menu innovation, loyalty/digital gains, marketing, and store refreshes. While valuation remains depressed (~7.5x '26 Consensus EBITDA), we believe key catalysts needed to support an improved valuation gap to peers include visibility into: i) traction on sales initiatives to strengthen traffic; ii) profitability improvement; and iii) debt deleverage & FCF generation. We reiterate our Neutral rating but lower our price target to $14 from $23, representing 7x our NTM EBITDA estimate in 12 months, reflecting persistent macro headwinds particularly among lower income consumers, limited visibility into turnaround plans, and pressured industry valuations."

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