Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) PT Lowered to $100 at Mizuho

Mizuho analyst Graig Suvannavejh lowered the price target on Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TARS) to $100.00 (from $101.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst commented, "Ahead of TARS' 1Q26 results (early-May), we adjust our Xdemvy revenue estimate to reflect (1) the January-March monthly IQVIA total prescription/TRx data, and (2) per management guidance, a higher expected gross-to-net/GTN vs. the full-year 43-45% guidance range. As a result, we now project 1Q26E Xdemvy sales of $141.3mn (vs. our prior $150.1mn estimate and Bloomberg consensus estimate of $148.3mn) and 2026E Xdemvy sales of $690.1mn (vs. consensus estimate of $691.0mn), which falls within company guidance of $670-700mn, and given this adjustment, our PT moves to $100 (from $101). Bigger picture, TARS has been a significant underperformer, with the shares -22% YTD (vs. +13% XBI), reflecting concerns about growth trends for Xdemvy and the nascent Demodex blepharitis/DB market. That said, with confidence in management's ability to execute, and that 2026 sales and peak sales guidance of $2bn for Xdemvy can indeed be achieved, we remain OP-rated on TARS."

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