Macquarie Downgrades DiDi Global (DIDIY) to Neutral

Macquarie analyst Ellie Jiang downgraded DiDi Global (OTC: DIDIY) from Outperform to Neutral with a price target of $3.90 (from $9.30).

The analyst comments: "DiDi posted 4Q25 results, with in-line revenue of Rmb58bn, representing 10% yoy growth, and strong GTV growth of 20% yoy to Rmb124bn, largely driven by the incremental business from food delivery operations in Brazil. However, adj. EBITA for the quarter dropped to an Rmb2.1bn loss, below market expectations, due to an Rmb3.4bn international segment loss (4x yoy).

DiDi's China operations remained healthy, seeing GTV growth of 11% during 4Q25, with ASP for the quarter seeing the first positive growth, at 1% yoy, since 2023, indicating stabilisation of the demand supply relationship in the China market. Management remains confident on profitability expansion given the largely stable landscape, pointing to a 5% mid-term EBITA/GTV margin.

While the International segment's mobility and fintech businesses have both achieved profitability, expansion of food delivery operations in Brazil has incurred significant upfront and incentive costs. Management expects quarterly spending to have peaked in 4Q25 and sees meaningful profitability recovery in 2026, partially from the synergy of the bike-hailing network, which is already yielding 10%-lower order fulfilment costs vs other delivery-only players. We estimate the International segment will incur a total 2026 EBITA loss of Rmb10bn on the back of 46% yoy GTV growth. As we believe near-term earnings are capped, we downgrade to Neutral from Outperform."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on DiDi Global click here. For more ratings news on DiDi Global click here.

Shares of DiDi Global closed at $3.94 yesterday.

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