Mizuho downgrades key chip stocks on weaker 2026 outlook

Investing.com -- Mizuho analysts downgraded some major semiconductor stocks in a note on Monday, citing a tougher macroeconomic backdrop, slowing handset and auto demand, and rising China-related risks.

The firm cut its ratings on Skyworks (NASDAQ: SWKS), Qorvo (NASDAQ: QRVO), and Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) to Underperform, warning of limited catalysts and valuation headwinds.

In a note to clients, Mizuho said, “We see tougher macro, limited catalysts ahead for RF/handsets and downgrade both [SWKS and QRVO] to Underperform.”

The analysts added that 2026 iPhone estimates are “softer (down ~7% y/y), after a better 2025E,” and warned that a “new foldable iPhone with 2-3x ASP could delay upgrades,” hurting demand for Skyworks and Qorvo, whose iPhone exposure exceeds 65% and 45% of revenue, respectively.

Mizuho cut its price targets on SWKS to $60 from $70 and on QRVO to $75 from $87, citing weaker global handset growth and reduced Chinese subsidies.

“We expect global smartphone shipments flat in 2026E after modest 2-3% y/y growth in 2025E,” the note said.

The analysts also downgraded TXN and RIVN in a separate note, flagging slower electric vehicle and auto sales.

“We see headwinds in 2026E with softer EV/Autos in N.A. and China risks,” Mizuho said, lowering TXN’s price target to $150 from $200 and RIVN’s to $10 from $14.

Mizuho warned that “TXN valuation is high, with potential Auto and China Headwinds,” and that the company faces “anti-dumping tariffs” and market share losses due to China’s “China for China” policy.

Overall, the firm expects “2026E Global Handsets FLAT y/y” and “N.Am Auto LVP Down ~3% y/y,” highlighting a broad slowdown across key chip end markets.

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