Apple target lifted at Morgan Stanley on stronger-than-expected iPhone 17 cycle

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Overweight-rated Apple shares to $298 from $240 in a note to clients on Thursday, citing a stronger-than-expected start to the iPhone 17 cycle.

“The iPhone 17 cycle is modestly stronger than we originally expected,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, adding that while “the market has already priced this in,” there remains “a positive bias to T12M estimates, and the early drivers of iPhone 17 strength get us more excited about the iPhone 18 cycle.”

The bank increased its fiscal 2026 iPhone revenue forecast by 4 percent, reflecting “3% higher units and 1% higher ASPs,” and said “a build increase is imminent, driven by demand strength from the iPhone 17 base, Pro and Pro Max models.”

Morgan Stanley noted that “the key driver of a stronger iPhone 17 cycle — an aged iPhone installed base in need of upgrades — combined with the first-ever Foldable iPhone and 6 total new iPhone launches next cycle … supports high-single digit Y/Y iPhone revenue growth extending into FY27, even before we make any assumptions around AI.”

On earnings, the analysts said: “As a result of these factors, we are raising our FY26 and FY27 EPS by 2% and 6%, respectively, and increasing our price target to $298, or 32x our new FY27 EPS of $9.30, 6% above Consensus.”

Morgan Stanley’s new bull case target is $376, a scenario that “embeds over 270m iPhone shipments and $10.16 of EPS, which is achievable if Foldables and AI catalyze even stronger demand.”

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