Chevron (CVX) PT Raised to $203 at Mizuho, Top Pick

Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar raised the price target on Chevron (NYSE: CVX) to $203.00 (from $194.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "We update our CVX model for 4Q24 results and new 2025-26 outlook - raising PT to $203 (from $194), maintaining Outperform rating and Top Pick designation. Although a headline CFFO miss on one-time items (see below) took some shine off CVX's 4Q24 results, the key takeaway in our view was the 2025-26 outlook that should help the company deliver an incremental $10bn of FCF by 2026 via slowing the pace of investments in organic projects (e.g., TCO, GOA, Permian) and ~$2-3bn of structural cost reductions. Management reiterated the buyback guidance of $10-20bn while raising the base dividend ~5%, but we suspect they have the capacity to lean into returns countercyclically depending on the outcome of HES/XOM arbitration in May. Despite risking longer dated reserves, we see a standalone NAV of ~$199/sh while our base case NAV of $203 assumes the deal closes in 3Q25."

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