Macau Casino Revenue Stabilizes in April But Any Rally Could be 'Short Lived', Says Analyst (LVS) (MGM) (MPEL) (WYNN)

Casino revenue in Macau declined 39% year-over-year in April compared to a 39% decline in March, according to Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

In the view of analyst Karen Tang of Deutsche Bank, results were as expected. Tang also thinks a rally in Macau stocks into Galaxy's phase II opening will be "short lived."

Tang explained, "As expected, April GGR fell 39% yoy to MOP19.2bn, stabilising from March's - 39% yoy decline. But on a per-day basis, GGR still slipped from MOP700m/day in March to MOP640m/day in April. Over this past Labour Day long weekend (May 1-3rd), Macau's streets were busy with tourists. But the visitor mix was mainly low-end."

"Given the recent liquidity rally in HK/China, many investors are asking if Macau stocks can take off. Given the deteriorating visitor mix, we feel consensus forecasts are still 25-30% too high. Any rally into Galaxy's Ph2 opening in the hope for GGR recovery is likely to be short-lived, in our view," added the analyst. "We see Macau as facing a demand problem rather than a supply constraint."

Stocks in the US with exposure to Macau casino revenue include Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM), Wynn Resorts Ltd (NASDAQ: WYNN), and Melco Crown (NASDAQ: MPEL).

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