US government forecaster expects neutral weather pattern to persist

By Rahul Paswan

(Reuters) -El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, neutral conditions are expected to develop and persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October, the United States' Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

La Nina is part of the larger El Nino-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle involving water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

While La Nina causes cooler-than-average temperatures, raising the chance of both floods and droughts, thereby affecting crops, ENSO neutral means the water temperature remains near the average level and crop yields may be more stable.

CONTEXT

Earlier this week, Japan's weather bureau said there were no signs of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena occurring yet and that they were unlikely to do so through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Risk anticipated a 2025 hurricane season similar to the 1991 to 2020 climate norm, with tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters expected to be near or slightly above normal by September 2025, with neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions.

KEY QUOTES

"Typically the transition from La Nina to neutral tends to favour a reduction in rainfall across India, especially in central and parts of western India," AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

"Southwest and southeast Europe should trend drier heading into summer but ample soil moisture from a wet winter and spring should limit any negative impacts on crops over Spain and Portugal... Dryness is expected to remain a concern across the crop lands of Brazil over the next several months."

(Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)

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