Thailand finance ministry cuts 2025 growth forecast to 2.1%

BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand's finance ministry cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 2.1% from 3%, saying on Thursday that the impact of U.S. tariffs and a global slowdown would weigh on Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, were seen rising 2.3% this year, down from an earlier forecast of 4.4%, Pornchai Thiraveja, head of the finance ministry's fiscal policy office, told a press conference.

The forecasts came a day after the Bank of Thailand cut rates at a second consecutive meeting and lowered its own forecasts for the economy this year.

The 2.1% growth forecast is based on Thailand negotiating a reduced U.S. tariff rate, the ministry said. Thailand could face a 36% tariff on its exports to the U.S. if negotiations are unsuccessful before a moratorium on the levies expires in July.

Pornchai said if the government accelerated its budget spending, it was possible growth could be up to 2.5% this year.

Earlier on Thursday, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said Thailand would seek tariffs similar to those of its trade competitors, and planned economic stimulus measures to support growth.

The ministry lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals, another key driver of growth, to 36.5 million this year from a previous estimate of 38.5 million.

In 2019, before the pandemic, Thailand had a record of nearly 40 million visitors.

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon and Thanadech Staporncharnchai; Editing by John Mair)

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