Take Five: Wild times

Aug 3 (Reuters) - Summer lull? Don't even think about it. There's a ‌multi-trillion dollar selloff in AI-linked equities ​taking place, devastating ​wildfires across Europe and the war in the Middle East continues to rage.

In Asia, joint Japanese and U.S. yen intervention has taken currency markets by surprise, India holds a crucial central bank meeting against a complex backdrop, while Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report comes as traders grow increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve may have to hike ‌interest rates again.

Here's all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets from Sophie Kiderlin, Marc Jones and Dhara Ranasinghe in London, ⁠Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore.

1/AI-WATERING MOVES

The AI-driven bull run has gone from seemingly unstoppable to spectacularly volatile in a matter of weeks.

Investors are increasingly uneasy about profitability, competition and who's paying for it all. Unprecedented ‌volatility in chipmakers and other AI-related stocks is the ‌result. South Korea's KOSPI, which jumped 18% on Friday after tumbling 40% over the previous six weeks, is the prime example.

Pressure is emerging elsewhere too. The cost of insuring against default by some AI hyperscalers has risen as debt levels climb, while earnings reports are triggering increasingly dramatic market reactions.

More turbulence may lie ahead. Elon Musk's SpaceX reports its first results since its ​blockbuster June IPO. Since then, its market value has slumped by an eye-watering $1 trillion.

There's seismic activity in the currency markets too. Japan and the U.S. have jointly intervened to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998, with Tokyo insisting it's prepared to continue if required.

2/WAR WORRIES

Focus is back on the Middle East and efforts to resurrect the crumbled ceasefire.

U.S. President Donald ⁠Trump has said fresh talks with Iran will happen on Monday. He has avoided setting any firm deadline for an agreement this time, but has said he called off imminent U.S. attacks to aid the chances.

Last week's drone strikes on two U.S.-owned gas tankers ​in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta opened a potential new front in the five-month conflict. Oil prices briefly spiked above $100 a barrel on concerns that traffic through the Suez Canal, one of the world's most important trade routes, could come under threat. Monday's news of renewed talks saw oil ​back below $85 though.

Another first last week was Saudi Arabia publicly joining U.S. strikes on Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq. ‌There were new diplomatic efforts there too though. Riyadh outlined a plan to lead a 14-country coalition to boost maritime defence in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, all critical chokepoints for global energy supplies.

3/JOLT FROM JOBS?

Markets get a fresh read on the U.S. economy ⁠on Friday when closely watched non-farm payrolls data are released.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the July report to show payrolls increased by 91,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. A stronger-than-expected reading could raise bets that the Fed may need to resume raising rates to contain persistently above-target inflation at its next meeting in September.

The central bank held rates steady on Wednesday, but three policymakers voted for a hike and Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the ⁠Fed's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.

4/ EUROPE'S BURNING ISSUES

Europe's record-breaking heatwave looks set to continue with wildfires that have devastated parts of Spain and France now spreading to Italy and Greece while the drying ​out of the Danube has forced Hungary to power down its sole nuclear power plant.

Markets should pay attention.

The economic costs are mounting, from healthcare spending and insurance claims to reconstruction bills and higher food prices, at a time when many heavily indebted governments are already grappling with the fallout of the Iran war. Adding to concerns, a 'super' El Niño event appears increasingly likely, raising the risk of further extreme weather globally.

In Britain, also facing wildfires ‌and drought, major supermarket groups warn another food-price shock could be looming. In Germany, meanwhile, a contentious cabinet reshuffle has renewed pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz as the country also battles record temperatures.

5/DRUPEE

The Reserve Bank of India announces its latest policy decision on Wednesday, with most economists polled by Reuters ‌expecting no change to the benchmark interest rate of 5.25%.

However, authorities will be attempting to prop up the rupee, one of Asia's worst-performing currencies this year.

In June, the central bank unveiled measures designed to boost capital inflows and ⁠strengthen the balance of payments. The moves attracted more than $20 billion in their ‌first month, but renewed strength in oil prices has since ​clouded the outlook.

For those thinking an interest rate increase might help, retail inflation has just breached the central bank's target for the first time in over a year. Nevertheless, economists still expect the risks to growth to keep policymakers from acting, for now at least.

(Graphics by Kongkunakornkul, Pasit. Compiled by Marc Jones. Editing by ‌Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan)

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