Taiwan's first-quarter economic growth likely rose on strong tech demand: Reuters poll

TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan's trade-reliant economy likely grew at a quicker pace in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the final quarter of 2024, driven by strong tech demand, according to a Reuters poll on Monday, though U.S. tariffs continue to cloud the outlook.

Taiwan's gross domestic product is expected to have grown 3.4% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, the poll of 24 economists showed, up from 2.9% in the fourth quarter.

The economists' forecast for preliminary GDP data, which due on Wednesday, varied widely from an expansion of just 1.5% to as much as 6.3%.

Taiwan's trade-driven economy could be substantially affected this year if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through with his tariff policy. Taiwan was due to get a 32% tariff, until Trump paused the whole plan for 90 days earlier this month.

"Exports in the first quarter were not too bad, and shipments are expected to be expedited with the 90-day tariff pause. So, second-quarter exports won't be too weak either and will only be revised down after the third quarter," said Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting chief economist Woods Chen.

Taiwan is a key hub in the global technology supply chain for giants such as Apple, and home to the world's largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), whose semiconductors are widely used for artificial intelligence (AI) applications.TSMC this month reported a 60% year-on-year surge in first-quarter net profit, beating forecasts.

Taiwan's export orders rose less than expected in March, with solid demand for AI being offset by slower demand from China, the island's largest trading partner.

China's first-quarter economic growth outstripped expectations, underpinned by solid consumption and industrial output.

In February, the Taiwan government's statistics bureau trimmed its full-year 2025 economic growth outlook to 3.14% from a previous 3.29%, citing U.S. tariff concerns.

Taiwan's preliminary GDP data will be released in a statement with limited commentary. More detailed and revised figures, including forward-looking forecasts, will follow a few weeks later.

(Poll compiled by Devayani Sathyan, Pranoy Krishna and Carol Lee; Reporting by Faith Hung and Jeanny Kao; Editing by Ben Blanchard and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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