Swedish March flash inflation falls back, easing pressure on Riksbank

By Niklas Pollard

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) -Swedish headline consumer prices fell 0.5% in March from the previous month and rose 2.3% from the same month a year earlier, flash figures from the statistics office (SCB) showed on Friday, bringing inflation back near the Riksbank's target.

The outcome eases pressure on the Riksbank to adopt a more hawkish stance, and the crown weakened against the euro shortly after the data release. Analysts had on average expected inflation, measured using the consumer price index with a fixed interest rate (CPIF), to edge 0.2% lower on the month and rise 2.6% year-on-year.

"Today's data puts inflation close to the Riksbank’s just updated forecast and lends temporary support to the Board’s cautious stance," Swedbank said in a research note.

Sweden's central bank held its key policy rate at 2.25% at its latest meeting and forecast policy would remain unchanged for the foreseeable future though uncertainty, not least linked to U.S. policy moves and global trade, is unusually great.

Inflation had been running higher than expected this year and, while the Riksbank has said it expects consumer price increases to remain above the 2% target level through this year, board members have said the uptick looks to be temporary.

How U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs on global trading partners, and the response they are likely to generate, will impact inflation remains uncertain, and Governor Erik Thedeen has said the Riksbank is ready to act if necessary.

Some economists have predicted that a tighter monetary policy may be called for in the year ahead.

"Today's inflation print is a welcome relief for Governor Thedeen & Co, which buys them more time in these uncharted international risk waters. We stick to our long-held baseline for unchanged policy rate of 2.25 percent," Handelsbanken said in a note.

The flash figures are a preliminary reading with a fuller set of data due on April 11.

(Reporting by Niklas Pollard, additional reporting by Johan Ahlander; editing by Stine Jacobsen and Hugh Lawson)

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