South African inflation surprise makes Thursday's rate decision a close call

By Sfundo Parakozov and Anathi Madubela

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South African inflation unexpectedly slowed in August thanks to softer fuel and food prices, with some analysts saying the central bank might now decide to cut interest rates on Thursday.

Headline consumer inflation fell to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.5% in July, lower than the 3.6% forecast of economists polled by Reuters.

The consensus before Wednesday's inflation data was that the central bank would maintain its repo rate at 7% on Thursday as it seeks to steer inflation to 3%, the new, lower level it said it would aim for at its last policy meeting.

But some analysts said the downside surprise, coupled with falling bond yields and a stronger rand, opened the door to another cut.

"This (inflation) release is something of a game changer. Suddenly, the September meeting is looking very live," said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and Middle East at Standard Chartered.

Capital Economics said in a research note that it was expecting a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Thursday, and that a flagging economy was another reason to ease monetary policy.

Other analysts said they were sticking to their prediction for no change in rates.

"The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) may want to see if there are any price shocks still in the pipeline from tariffs," said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

President Donald Trump imposed a 30% tariff on South African exports to the U.S. last month, the highest rate in Sub-Saharan Africa.

While the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has said the impact from the tariffs on growth and inflation could be modest, that view is yet to be borne out in official data.

The SARB has cut its key rate at three of its four policy meetings this year in an easing cycle that started in September 2024.

(Reporting by Sfundo Parakozov and Anathi Madubela; Editing by Alexander Winning, Aidan Lewis)

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