South African inflation expectations stabilise in third quarter

JOHANNESBURG, Sept 16 (Reuters) - ‌South African ​inflation ​expectations stabilised in the third quarter, a survey showed on Wednesday, after a ‌steep rise in the previous quarter because ⁠of the oil price shock triggered by the Iran ‌war.

• The quarterly survey ‌is commissioned by the central bank and guides its thinking on the appropriate level of ​interest rates.

• The average forecast of analysts, business people and trade union officials was for ⁠headline consumer inflation of 4.4% this year, unchanged from the second-quarter ​survey.

• The average forecasts for 2027 and 2028 declined to 4.0% and 3.8%, ​respectively, from 4.2% and 3.9%. ‌Those forecasts are important as the central bank says interest rate changes ⁠affect the economy with a lag of about 12 to 24 months.

• Inflation stood at 4.3% year ⁠on year in July, the latest month for which price ​data is available.

• The central bank targets inflation of 3% with a 1-percentage-point tolerance band either side of ‌that.

• The bank surprised investors and economists by keeping its main lending ‌rate unchanged in July after its first rate ⁠hike in three years ‌in May.

• Its ​next rate announcement is scheduled for September 23.

(Reporting by Alexander WinningEditing by Bate ‌Felix)

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