SVB collapse may prompt Fed to go slow on rate hikes

(Corrects typographical error in the second column header in the table)

(Reuters) - Traders no longer expect a rate hike of 50 basis points by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week as the surprise collapse of startup-focused Silicon Valley Bank has rattled the financial system.

A 25 bps hike seems most likely, although traders see a 30% chance that the Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged in March.

That is a quick reversal in expectations after hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had prompted traders to give a 70% chance of a 50 bps rate hike just a week earlier.

Following are rate expectations from major Wall Street banks:

Bank Expectation post SVB Expectation before SVB

crisis and U.S. Feb CPI crisis

March hike Terminal March Terminal rate

(in bps) rate hike

(in

bps)

Goldman No hike 5.25% - 5.5% 25 5.5% - 5.75%

JPM 25 5% - 5.25% 25 5% - 5.25%

Citi 25 5.5% - 5.75% 50 5.5% - 5.75%

BofA 25 5.25% - 5.5% 25 5.25% - 5.5%

Morgan 25 5.125% 25 5.125%

Stanley

Barclays No hike 5.1% 50 5.5% - 5.75%

NatWest No hike N/A 50 N/A

Nomura 25 bp cut N/A 50 N/A

(This factbox has been refiled to fix a typographical error in the second column header in the table)

(Editing by Anil D'Silva, Sam Holmes and Vinay Dwivedi)

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