Sweden's centre-left ahead as far-right stumbles in tight election

By Simon Johnson and Marie Mannes

STOCKHOLM, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Sweden's ‌centre-left opposition looked most ​likely to take ​power on Monday after a tight election that reduced the far-right's influence but is unlikely to spell a return to open immigration policies.

Bucking a Europe-wide trend of shifts to the right, preliminary results from Sweden's election projected a narrow three-seat lead for the centre-left ‌opposition over the right-wing ruling bloc of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

That was driven mainly by losses for the far-right Sweden ⁠Democrats party, which had helped steer the once-liberal nation towards some of Europe's strictest migration rules.

While a centre-left government may take a softer line, it is unlikely to return to the ‌generous, open-door policies of past decades, analysts say, ‌due to voters' unease over the levels of immigration and crime.

"I believe the broader shift towards a stricter Swedish migration policy is, for the most part, here to stay," said Niklas Bohlin, political scientist at the Mid-Sweden University.

Left-leaning parties backing Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson were projected to win ​176 seats in the 349-seat parliament while Kristersson's bloc was seen winning 173 seats, the election authority said.

"If this result remains valid, Sweden will get a new government," Andersson told supporters on Sunday night.

A centre-left government would be expected to stick to Sweden's pro-Western and pro-Ukraine stance.

ASYLUM NUMBERS DOWN

On immigration, ⁠Andersson's Social Democrats now support a significantly more restrictive approach than the party championed during the refugee crises of the 2010s.

The current government abolished permanent residency for refugees, tightened welfare and stepped up expulsions, ​bringing asylum numbers to a 40-year low.

The election pitted a fragmented centre-left against a united centre-right that had planned to bring the far-right into the coalition - a step too far for some voters.

Sweden Democrats, with roots in the neo-Nazi ​fringe and white supremacy, lost an estimated 11 seats, projections showed, the first time ‌the party has seen its share of the vote decline in a parliamentary election.

With the far-right on the front foot across Europe due to disillusionment with established parties, cost of living, and turbulent geopolitics, analysts said the Sweden Democrats' reversal was ⁠more likely due to tactical voting than a sign that the far-right had reached a high-water mark.

Party officials attributed the setback partly to its role in supporting government from outside cabinet as well as lingering disquiet about its past.

"There is a group of voters that may like many of our policies but emotionally have a hard time accepting us," ⁠said Richard Jomshof, a Sweden Democrat lawmaker.

The party says it has expelled extremists and apologised for its past.

PRELIMINARY TALLY

The parties' leaders have been cautious about claiming victory or accepting ​defeat with 353 election districts still to be counted and overseas votes not likely to be tallied until Wednesday.

In 2022, exit polls initially gave a narrow victory to the centre-left which proved premature and Kristersson showed no sign of conceding when he spoke after Sunday's election.

The blocs were separated by around 0.4% of votes on Monday morning, only ‌about 29,000 votes out of a total 6.4 million counted.

Andersson has yet to say how she would unite a divided centre-left behind her in a coalition.

"It could very well be a complicated process to form a government," parliament speaker ‌Andreas Norlen told Swedish television.

Andersson has promised voters more spending on welfare, a fairer tax system and a focus on social cohesion. But while the Greens and Left parties ⁠want the rich to contribute more, the Centre Party is against ‌a billionaires' tax.

The Centre Party refuses to sit ​in government with the Left Party and Andersson needs the support of both.

(Reporting by Simon Johnson, Anna Ringstrom, Marie Mannes and Johan Ahlander in Stockholm, Stine Jacobsen in Copenhagen; Writing by Simon Johnson, Anna Ringstrom and Niklas Pollard; Editing by Toby Chopra ‌and Andrew Cawthorne)

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