Morning Bid: Markets cling on as ceasefire is tested

A look at the ‌day ahead ​in ​European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Oil ticked higher and European futures wobbled on Friday, while the ‌U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Middle East.

But ⁠with investors choosing to focus on hopes for a more lasting peace deal ‌moves were modest and, ‌in Asia, dominated by big weekly gains in AI stocks.

Traders were watching early results in Britain's local elections, which showed ​heavy losses for Keir Starmer's Labour Party though sterling stayed steady at $1.36 in Asia.

U.S. and Iranian forces clashed in ⁠the Gulf, and the UAE came under renewed attack. U.S. President Donald Trump later ​told reporters the ceasefire was still in effect and sought to play down the exchange, leaving oil ​at $101 a barrel.

Toyota forecast a 20% ‌decline in profit for the current financial year on Friday, as cost and supply uncertainties stemming from ⁠the Iran war weigh on earnings, and its shares fell about 1.5%.

Most markets in Asia logged small losses on Friday but were ⁠set for chunky weekly gains led by South Korea, where runaway rallies in ​chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix had the KOSPI on course for a 13% weekly rise, its best since 2008.

German trade data is due ‌on Friday along with U.S. jobs figures, with a steady unemployment rate at 4.3% seen giving ‌room for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates where ⁠they are for the time ‌being.

Key developments that ​could influence markets on Friday:

- U.S.-Iran negotiations

- German trade data

- U.S. non-farm payrolls

(Reporting by Tom WestbrookEditing by ‌Shri Navaratnam)

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