Mexico's economy grows at fastest pace since late 2020 in Q2

July 30, 2026 8:40 AM EDT

A worker sells fruits and vegetables at a market in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, April 15, 2026. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez

By Aida Pelaez-Fernandez

MEXICO CITY, July ‌30 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy ​rebounded ​in the second quarter from the previous three-month period, growing at its fastest pace since late 2020, a preliminary estimate from national statistics ‌agency INEGI showed on Thursday.

Latin America's second-largest economy expanded 1.5% in ⁠the second quarter, INEGI said in a report, with all three main sectors posting growth.

GDP rebounded ‌from a 0.6% contraction in ‌the first quarter and exceeded the 1.3% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

"The data does suggest that the communications are likely to become a ​bit less dovish and we think the balance of probabilities is tilted towards a rate hike over the next six months or so," Capital Economics ⁠analyst Kimberley Sperrfechter said in a note.

Mexico's central bank, also known as Banxico, took a dovish stance in ​its latest meetings, cautioning about persistent inflation and Mexico's economy amid global tensions.

The economic expansion was mainly fueled by primary activities, which ​include farming, fishing and mining, which expanded ‌3.3% on a sequential basis.

The secondary sector - which includes manufacturing and construction - increased 1.6%, and services activity rose 1.5% in the ⁠period.

Compared with the same quarter last year, the Mexican economy grew 2.2% in the period, also above a 1.5% year-on-year rise expected by economists.

DIVIDED FUTURE

Looking forward, Gabriella Siller, Banco Base's ⁠economic analysis director, warned that "output in the quarter following the World Cup will likely be lower ​in the construction, retail, and services sectors," pointing particularly to services linked to tourism and recreational activities taking a hit.

She added that after the football tournament that Mexico co-hosted with the ‌United States and Canada, a downward revision to GDP is expected, which would result in a quarterly contraction.

The Ministry of ‌Finance has estimated that GDP will grow between 1.8% and 2.8% this year, a projection ⁠more optimistic than the market's ‌1.1% forecast and also above ​the 1.2% increase expected by the International Monetary Fund.

(Reporting by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez and Ricardo Figueroa; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Gabriel Araujo and ‌Nick Zieminski)



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