Mexico says 1.5% GDP growth secure unless economy shrinks in second half

By Ana Isabel Martinez, ‌Adriana Barrera ​and ​Natalia Siniawski

MEXICO CITY, July 30 (Reuters) - Mexico's finance ministry on Thursday maintained its 2026 economic growth forecast ‌at 1.8% to 2.8%, saying the economy would ⁠have to contract in the second half of the year to miss ‌a baseline of 1.5% ‌growth.

"To have growth lower than 1.5%, there would have to be a contraction in the third and fourth quarters," ​the head of the Economic Planning Unit, Rodrigo Mariscal, said during a quarterly report presentation.

The government's optimism follows ⁠a sharp rebound in the second quarter. Mexico's economy grew by 1.5% from ​the previous three months — its fastest pace since late 2020 — after contracting by 0.6% in the ​first quarter, according to data from ‌statistics agency INEGI published on Thursday.

Compared with the same quarter last year, the Mexican economy ⁠expanded by 2.2% in the April-to-June period, INEGI said.

Mariscal said the 1.5% figure represents a "growth base" and pointed to strong performance ⁠in construction and automotive manufacturing. He added that the second-quarter momentum "offers ​at least an indication of growth for the remainder of the year."

Even if the economy recorded zero growth in both the third and ‌fourth quarters, he noted, the full-year GDP expansion would still reach 1.5% due to activity ‌in the first half of the year.

The ministry also kept ⁠its forecast of inflation ‌ending 2026 at 3.7%.

(Reporting ​by Ana Isabel Martinez, Adriana Barrera and Natalia Siniawski, Editing by Daina Beth Solomon and David ‌Gregorio)

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