Marketmind: ECB on hold, five's alive in the US

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Soggy lending data and weak purchasing managers' surveys have reinforced what traders had already figured: Europe's hiking cycle is over.

All 85 economists polled by Reuters last week expected the European Central Bank to stay on hold. Markets price nearly no chance of a hike and see recession in the offing.

In the absence of surprise, jittery trade is likely to turn on earnings - Unilever, Mercedes, StanChart and Amazon report on Thursday - and the behaviour of yields and the yen.

Google's disappointing cloud division result sent Alphabet shares on their sharpest drop since March 2020 on Wednesday and they slid further in after-market trade during Asia hours.

A resurgent dollar knocked the Aussie and kiwi to one-year lows, while the yen crossed 150 per dollar and is trading at its weakest since Japanese authorities stepped into the market last October to drive it higher.

The 10-year Treasury yield headed towards 5% on Wednesday after a rebound in U.S. home sales provided another excuse to worry about interest rates staying high.

Nasdaq futures fell 1%.

Investors were also rushing to Google Mike Johnson, the 51-year old conservative Republican from Louisiana who was elected speaker of the House of Representatives. He opposes sending aid to Ukraine. Trump supported his election as nominee.

Ted Pick, 54, won the race to succeed James Gorman as Morgan Stanley CEO. Pick joined the back in 1990.

The United Auto Workers union reached a tentative labour deal on Wednesday with Ford, the first of Detroit's Big Three car manufacturers to negotiate a settlement to strikes.

Israel bombarded Hamas targets as it prepared for a ground invasion, with Russia warning the conflict could spread beyond the Middle East.

Russia said it successfully tested its ability to deliver a massive retaliatory nuclear strike by land, sea and air.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

Economics: European Central Bank meeting, U.S. GDP

Earnings: Unilever, Mercedes, Standard Chartered and, after market close, Amazon

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook. Editing by Sam Holmes)

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