Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll after Banco Master scandal

May 22, 2026 2:52 PM EDT

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gestures during the launch ceremony of a program to combat organized crime at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, May 12, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado

SAO PAULO, May 22 (Reuters) - ‌Brazilian President Luiz ​Inacio ​Lula da Silva leads opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the race for this year's presidential election, gaining ground after reports ‌linking the right-wing challenger to a disgraced banker, a poll ⁠released by pollster Datafolha showed on Friday.

Leftist Lula would win a potential second-round runoff ‌against Flavio by 47% to ‌43%, the poll showed. A May 16 survey had them tied.

• Lula led a first-round scenario with 40% of the intended ​vote, followed by Flavio at 31%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, and both Romeu Zema and Renan Santos at 3%.

• The poll ⁠was conducted after Intercept Brasil published a story alleging Flavio negotiated a $24 million investment from former Banco Master ​owner Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film inspired on the life of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

• ​Flavio has denied any wrongdoing. Lawyers for ‌Vorcaro, who has been in custody since March following a sweeping probe into Banco Master's collapse, declined ⁠to comment.

• Earlier this week, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula beating Flavio in a potential run-off by 48.9% to 41.8%.

• The Datafolha poll also included ⁠a potential second-round scenario in which former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro would face Lula ​in Flavio's place, were he to step down from the race over the Banco Master scandal.

• Against Michelle, Lula would win re-election by 48% to 43%, ‌Datafolha showed.

• In a first-round scenario without Flavio on the ballot, Lula led with 41%, followed by ‌Michelle at 22%, Zema at 6%, Caiado at 5% and Santos at ⁠3%.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,004 people ‌between May 20-21, the ​poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Isabel Teles, Editing by ‌Iñigo Alexander)



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