JPMorgan trims GCC non-oil growth forecasts on Middle East conflict

LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - ‌JPMorgan ​trimmed ​its outlook for non-oil growth for economies across the Gulf region ‌this year following the widening Iran ⁠conflict over the weekend, warning that there ‌was a risk of ‌bigger revisions ahead.

The Wall Street bank cut non-oil growth by 0.3 percentage ​points across the bloc, with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates seeing ⁠the biggest reduction, at 0.5 percentage points and 0.4 ​percentage points, respectively.

"Risks are elevated across multiple fronts and will depend ​heavily on the conflict’s ‌outcomes," JPMorgan analysts said.

The bank also said it no longer ⁠expected Turkey's central bank to cut interest rates at its March 12 meeting and ⁠revised its end-2026 policy rate forecast to 31% ​from 30%, while inflation was now expected to stand at 25% rather than 24% at ‌that point.

"With Israel directly involved in the current conflict, it ‌is probably fair to assume the ⁠BOI (Bank of Israel) will ‌not cut ​in March either," JPMorgan said.

(Reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Amanda ‌Cooper)

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