Italy stats bureau cuts 2025 GDP growth estimate, in line with government

ROME (Reuters) -Italy's economy will grow by 0.6% this year, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Friday, trimming a previous forecast of 0.8% made in December amid mounting uncertainty over the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy.

In its twice-yearly economic outlook report, ISTAT also predicted that gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone's third-largest economy would increase by 0.8% in 2026.

ISTAT said growth this year and next will be supported entirely by domestic demand, whereas trade flows will have a negative impact in both years.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government in April halved its economic growth estimate for this year to 0.6%, after the economy expanded by 0.7% in each of the last two years.

Most analysts put this year's annual growth at between 0.4% and 0.7%.

In 2026, Rome sees GDP growth of 0.8%, down from the previous 1.1% target.

Despite Italy's weakening economy, its labour market has held up relatively well. Data this week showed the unemployment rate falling to 5.9% in April from 6.1% in the previous month.

ISTAT estimated an average jobless rate of 6.0% this year, down from 6.2% seen in December, and forecast a fall to 5.8% next year.

(Reporting by Antonella Cinelli, graphics by Stefano Bernabei, editing by Giulia Segreti and Gareth Jones)

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