Indonesia trade surplus seen shrinking to $4 billion in August: Reuters poll

JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia's trade surplus likely narrowed to $4 billion in August, as exports shrank while imports remained in contraction, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

In July, the surplus was at $4.18 billion, supported by strong shipments of palm oil products and machinery.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has recorded a back-to-back monthly trade surplus since mid-2020, and recently driven by a surge in exports ahead of U.S. tariff implementation.

The median forecast of 14 economists, surveyed by Reuters between September 22 and 30, estimated a 5.5% year-on-year rise in exports for August, compared with a 9.86% increase in July.

Imports were expected to contract 1.6% after shrinking by 5.86% in July.

On Wednesday, the statistics bureau will also announce Indonesia's consumer price index data for September.

The survey forecast annual headline inflation at 2.5% for September, accelerated slightly from 2.31% in August, while month-to-month inflation was seen at 0.13% versus deflation of 0.08% in August.

Annual core inflation, which strips out government-controlled and volatile food prices, was expected at 2.2% in September, compared with 2.17% in August.

The central bank targets inflation within a 1.5%-3.5% range in 2025.

(Polling by Pranoy Krishna and Susobhan Sarkar; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Eileen Soreng)

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