Flavio Bolsonaro draws even with Lula in Brazil election matchup, Datafolha shows

March 7, 2026 11:17 AM EST

Brazil's senator Flavio Bolsonaro gestures, as he takes part in a campaign rally, as a pre-candidate of the right-wing, ahead of the presidential elections, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, March 1, 2026. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

SAO PAULO, March 7 (Reuters) - ‌A second-round ​runoff ​between Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would result in a technical ‌tie, according to a Datafolha poll released on ⁠Saturday.

The poll shows that if the runoff were held today, Lula would ‌receive 46% of the vote, ‌compared with 43% for Flavio, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

If Lula were to face off against ​Tarcisio de Freitas, governor of the state of Sao Paulo, 45% of respondents said they would vote for ⁠Lula in the second round, while 42% would vote for de Freitas, also a ​technical tie.

Brazil's general election is scheduled for October 4. If no presidential candidate receives a majority ​of the vote, the two candidates ‌with the most votes will face off in a runoff on October 25.

According to the survey, ⁠Lula, 80, who will be vying for his fourth presidential term, leads in all first‑round scenarios. However, Flavio’s candidacy has gained ⁠strength since his name was put forward in December by Jair Bolsonaro, ​who is in jail.

Lula and Flavio, 44, also have the highest rejection rates in the poll. Some 46% of respondents said they would ‌not vote for Lula under any circumstances, while 45% said the same about Flavio - another technical ‌tie.

Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters from Tuesday to Thursday in 137 ⁠municipalities. The survey has ‌a margin of error ​of two percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Leticia Fucuchima; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Rod ‌Nickel)



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