Fed seen less likely to raise rates as job growth slows

July 2, 2026 9:07 AM EDT

FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is set against a blue sky in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

July 2 (Reuters) - Federal ‌Reserve policymakers ​have ​less reason to deliver an interest-rate hike later this month, traders bet on Thursday, ‌after a government report showed the U.S. ⁠economy added far fewer jobs than expected in the last ‌two months.

Nonfarm payrolls increased ‌by 57,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely ​watched employment report on Thursday.

That was about half what economists had anticipated. May job gains ⁠were revised down to 129,000, from the 172,000 initially reported.

"The slowdown in ​payroll growth challenges the narrative of renewed labour market strength that has been building ​in recent months but, importantly, ‌reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve is under little pressure to tighten ⁠policy," wrote Principal Asset Management chief global strategist Seema Shah.

Traders of short-term interest-rate futures now see less ⁠than a 20% chance of a rate hike in July, though ​they continue to see an increase in the policy rate in September as likely.

Fed funds futures contracts reflect about ‌a 60% chance of a hike versus a continued hold in the current ‌range of 3.50%-3.75%, versus about a 75% chance ⁠of a September rate ‌hike seen before ​the jobs report.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir , Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Louise Heavens and Chizu ‌Nomiyama )



Serious News for Serious Traders! Try StreetInsider.com Premium Free!

You May Also Be Interested In





Related Categories

Reuters

Related Entities

Nonfarm Payrolls