Factbox-What's at stake in Armenia's June election?

By Lucy Papachristou

May 19 (Reuters) - Armenia holds a parliamentary ‌election on June 7 ​that pits ​the governing Civil Contract party, which is pursuing closer ties with the West, against an array of opposition parties, many of which are pro-Russian.

Opinion polls and analysts predict that Civil Contract, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, will ‌emerge as the largest party but will likely fall short of the two-thirds majority needed to make ⁠changes to the constitution.

Here's what to look out for:

REFERENDUM ON PEACE DEAL

* Civil Contract, in power since 2018, has spent much of the pre-election period touting its progress ‌towards a peace deal with Azerbaijan after ‌Pashinyan signed an initial agreement with Baku at the White House last August.

* A landlocked country of around 3 million, Armenia has been at war off and on with Azerbaijan since the late 1980s, mostly over the mountainous territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

* Baku ​retook full control of Karabakh in a lightning offensive in 2023, causing nearly all of the region's 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia.

PRO-RUSSIAN OPPOSITION

* Armenia's opposition is dominated by pro-Russian groups, several of which are tied to unpopular former presidents.

* The biggest ⁠challenger is the Strong Armenia party, led by an Armenian-Russian billionaire who is currently on trial for making calls to overthrow the government.

* Strong Armenia is running on a pro-business platform ​and has accused Pashinyan of attempting to stoke war with Moscow.

CHANGING TIES WITH RUSSIA

* Relations with Russia have frayed since 2023, when Azerbaijan retook Karabakh despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.

* Armenia is a ​member of a Russian-led economic union and fully decoupling from Moscow, a ‌major trading partner, would be difficult. The country is also heavily dependent on Russia and neighbouring Iran for energy supplies and hosts a large Russian military base.

* Russia has expressed displeasure with Armenia's westward pivot, ⁠saying it could spell "negative political and economic consequences" for Yerevan.

* Armenian civil society groups have raised alarm over what they say are Russian state-sponsored disinformation efforts in the lead-up to the election. Moscow routinely denies it meddles in other countries' internal affairs.

WARMING TO THE WEST

* Armenia last year adopted a law ⁠to launch its European Union accession process, and Pashinyan has sought to project Armenia as a key partner for Europe in the South Caucasus.

* Part ​of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement sees a proposed transit corridor built across Armenian territory to better connect Asia to Europe while bypassing Russia.

* An agreement signed with U.S. Vice President JD Vance during a visit this year to Yerevan could pave the way for an American company to build a new ‌nuclear reactor in Armenia.

NORMALISATION WITH AZERBAIJAN, TURKEY

* Yerevan and Baku reached a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in August but have yet to sign a formal deal. Azerbaijan is demanding Armenia first change some wording in ‌its constitution, which Yerevan says it is willing to do. A constitutional referendum is possible after the election.

* Armenia's borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have ⁠been closed for decades, with the latter shuttering its ‌frontier in 1993 in solidarity with its ​key ally Baku over the Karabakh issue.

* Progress has been made recently towards normalisation with Ankara, including in trade, but in general the process has been slow.

(Reporting by Lucy Papachristou in Tbilisi; Editing by Mark Trevelyan ‌and Alex Richardson)

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