Factbox-Most brokerages expect Fed to hold rates steady in January meeting

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November 7, 2024 10:14 AM EST

A money exchange vendor counts U.S. dollar banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon May 24, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo

(Reuters) -Major brokerages, including BofA and Goldman Sachs, expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming January meeting, after the central bank delivered a quarter-percentage-point cut in December.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation. His remarks indicated policymakers were starting to consider the prospects for sweeping economic changes under a Trump administration.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

Brokerages Jan 2025 2025 Fed Funds Rate

BofA Global No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of

Research June)

Barclays No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of

2025)

Goldman Sachs No rate cut 75 (through 3.50%-3.75% (through

September September 2025)

2025)

J.P.Morgan No rate cut 75(through 3.75% (through

September September 2025)

2025)

Morgan Stanley No rate cut 50 (through 3.75%-4.00% (through

June 2025) June 2025)

Nomura No rate cut 25 4.00%-4.25% (through

end of 2025)

*UBS Global No rate cut 125 3.00%-3.25% (through

Research end of 2025)

Deutsche Bank No rate cut No Rate 4.25%-4.50%

Cuts

Societe No rate cut - 3.00%-3.25% (by

Generale early 2026)

ING No rate cut 75 3.75% - 4.00%

Macquarie No rate cut 25 4.00%-4.25%

UBS Global No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of

Wealth 2025)

Management

Peel Hunt No rate cut 50 3.50%-4.00%

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel, Shounak Dasgupta and Devika Syamnath)


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Deutsche Bank, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Nomura, Jerome Powell