Factbox-Brokerages see uncertain 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

(Reuters) - Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.

World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.

Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

target yield target

UBS Global 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60

Research

Goldman 6500 4.25% 1.03(next 159(next 7.50(next

Sachs 12-months) 12-months 12-months)

)

UBS Global 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Management

Wells Fargo 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Investment

Institute

Societe 6750 4.50% (Q4'25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Generale

Deutsche 7000 4.7% (Q4'25) 1.03 (Q4'25) 7.50

Bank

Nomura 135 6.93

4.25% 1.03

Morgan 6500 3.55% (Q4'25) 1.10 (Q4'25) 138 7.60

Stanley (Q4'25) (Q4'25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3'25) 1.08 148 7.50

BofA Global 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Research

Wells Fargo 4.00% 0.98 (Q4'25) 154 7.60

(Q4'25) (Q4'25)

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jefferies 6000 4.43%

Barclays 6600 4.25%

Piper 6600

Sandler

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20

BNP Paribas 3.65% (Q4'25) 1.15 (Q4'25) 131

(Q4'25)

Canaccord 6325

Genuity

Citigroup 6500 4.20% (Q4'25)

ING 1.02 160 7.35

HSBC 6700

Evercore 6800

ISI

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (Q4/Q4)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Societe Generale 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Bank 2.8% (Q4/Q4) 2.6% (Q4/Q4)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Investment

Institute

UBS Global 2.6%

Wealth

Management

Citigroup 2.5%

2.5%

BofA Global 2.4% 2.3%

Research (Q4/Q4)

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Nomura 2.7%

3.0%

ING 2.4%

Wells Fargo 2.6%

Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%

UBS

Global Research 2.5%

Real GDP Growth:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS Global 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Research FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.2% 6.3%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Management

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Citigroup 2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 1.0% 6.7%

Nomura 2.2 4.0% 1.0% 5.8%

2.9% 1.1%

BofA Global 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% 0.9%

Research 1.5% 7.0%

Deutsche Bank 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.5%

Investment 2.6%

Institute

Berenberg 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 6.5%

2.6% 1.3%

BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

Peel Hunt 1.9% 4.4% 1.3% 1.6% 7.0%

ING 2.0% 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%

Jefferies 2.4%

(Q4/Q4)

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

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