Explainer-What impact will US plans to restrict copper scrap exports have?

By Pratima Desai

LONDON (Reuters) -The United States is planning to restrict scrap copper exports from 2027, requiring that at least 25% of so-called “high-quality” scrap be retained for domestic use.

In the near-term the measure is unlikely to have much impact as the U.S. already consumes more than 40% of the copper scrap it generates, analysts say.

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Industry sources say much will depend on the definition of "high-quality" and question whether any planned restrictions can be enforced in notoriously opaque scrap metal markets.

"Practically speaking, this would be probably pretty tough to police ... the whole business of scrap collection, recycling, reprocessing is maybe not the most transparent of businesses," said Duncan Hobbs, research director at commodity merchant Concord Resources.

There are also concerns that the rule could distort the market if a few large players attempt to dominate the supply of qualifying scrap, or if the 25% threshold is applied unevenly across producers.

WHAT HAPPENS TO COPPER SCRAP GENERATED IN THE U.S?

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), recycling contributed 870,000 metric tons of copper to U.S. supplies last year.

The United States exported nearly 957,000 metric tons of copper scrap and waste last year, of which more than 40% was shipped to China, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.

Analysts estimate that amount of scrap would yield roughly 580,000 tons of copper metal, which could cut its imports of the metal used in the power and construction.

HOW MUCH COPPER DOES THE US IMPORT?

TDM data shows more than 921,000 tons of copper metal and alloys were shipped to the United States last year. The bulk of that - 70% - was imported from Chile, while 17% came from Canada.

"The U.S. could theoretically be self-sufficient if there were no copper scrap and concentrate exports," said Bank of America analyst Michael Widmer.

(Reporting by Pratima Desai; Editing by David Holmes)

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