Egypt inflation likely rose to 15.6% in July, poll says

CAIRO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Egypt's ‌annual headline inflation ​rate ​is expected to have accelerated in July to 15.6% from 14.3% in June, driven by an unfavourable base effect and stronger ‌food and non-food price pressures, a Reuters poll found.

The median forecast ⁠of 13 analysts polled by Reuters between July 29 and August 6 was for annual ‌urban consumer inflation to climb ‌to 15.6% in July. Forecasts ranged from a low of 14.6% to a high of 16.3%.

"Stronger food inflation and an uptick in non-food inflation ​too, will have driven the headline rate higher in July to 16.1% year-on-year," said James Swanston at Barclays.

The government statistics agency CAPMAS is ⁠due to release the July data on Monday, August 10.

Mohamed Abu Basha at EFG Holding said he ​expects a muted month-on-month reading of 0.5%, but an unfavourable base will lift the annual headline figure, adding that this ​is likely to continue in August before the ‌base normalises and inflation starts a downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Egypt raised electricity prices for most consumption ⁠brackets by an average of 12% earlier this month, which is expected to feed into the August print, Daniel Richards of Emirates NBD said.

Egypt has been gradually ⁠removing fuel and electricity subsidies as part of commitments under its $8 billion support package with ​the International Monetary Fund, a process that has repeatedly fed through into consumer prices even as headline inflation has cooled.

Annual inflation had plunged from a record high of 38% ‌in September 2023, helped by the IMF-backed reform programme agreed in March 2024, before renewed pressure from base effects ‌and administered price hikes pushed the rate higher again in recent months.

Core inflation ⁠was forecast at a median ‌of 14.9%, according to a ​smaller sample of three analysts, with forecasts ranging from 14.4% to 15.1%.

(Polling by Anant Chandak; Writing by Mohamed Ezz;Editing by ‌Ros Russell)

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