Copper's rally needs China impetus to reach record

By Tom Daly

LONDON (Reuters) -Copper prices touched $11,000 per metric ton on October 9, a milestone seen on only two other trading days in the history of the London Metal Exchange - and one that has analysts questioning whether the metal can scale a new peak.

Used in power and construction, copper had moved within touching distance of its all-time high of $11,104.50, set in May 2024, before losing ground on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China.

Benchmark copper was trading at $10,644 a ton as of 1047 GMT on Monday.

The metal has been propelled higher in 2025 by a weak dollar and, in recent months, a series of mining mishaps, but there is still a question mark over demand.

"For that rally to gain further momentum, we will also need to see strong demand growth, particularly from China," said ING analyst Ewa Manthey, adding that the bank retains a cautious outlook on the metal. "However, if China ramps up metals-intensive stimulus, it would boost demand and prices further."

Key copper mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia, have seen disruption this year. Even so, opinions differ on whether there is a genuine shortage of the metal or prices are being bid up by speculators.

Following the force majeure at Grasberg, the International Copper Study Group sees a 150,000 ton deficit in 2026, although it still expects a 178,000 ton surplus this year. Adjusting its annual loss allowance for lower Grasberg output, BNP Paribas expects a "balanced" copper market next year.

"No one's struggling to get copper," said David Wilson, senior commodities strategist at the bank. "Funds can push an industrial metal up, but then the industrial consumers will just go, 'All right, we're not buying.'"

Copper stocks on the LME, Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex total around 556,000 tons. But almost half are in the Comex system, where inventory built up prior to the expected imposition of U.S. tariffs on copper has not been drawn down, pointing to a surplus in the United States.

ShFE copper stocks are at just under 110,000 tons, the highest since April 25 but down almost 60% from February.

(Reporting by Tom Daly and Polina Devitt; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )

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