Brazil economists cut end-2026 interest rate forecast to 13.50%

September 21, 2026 7:47 AM EDT

FILE PHOTO: The Central Bank of Brazil logo is seen at its headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil December 17, 2024. REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo

SAO PAULO, Sept ‌21 (Reuters) - ​Private-sector ​economists polled weekly by Brazil's central bank lowered their estimate ‌for the country's benchmark interest rate ⁠at the end of 2026, now expecting ‌one additional 25-basis-point cut.

• ‌According to the Focus survey published on Monday, they now forecast the ​key Selic rate to end the year at 13.50%, down from ⁠13.75% in the previous poll.

• The central bank last ​week cut interest rates by 25 basis points for a fifth straight ​meeting, to 13.75%, ‌and kept its options open ahead of next month's presidential ⁠election.

• Latin America's largest economy has been showing firmer signs of a slowdown, ⁠while inflation has eased.

• Economists kept their end-2027 ​Selic forecast at 12%.

• IPCA inflation index seen ending 2026 at 4.92%, up from previous ‌estimate of 4.90%; end-2027 inflation forecast unchanged at 4.30%.

• Brazil's ‌central bank targets inflation at 3%, ⁠plus or minus ‌1.5 percentage ​points.

(Reporting by Eduardo Simoes; Writing by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Alexandra ‌Hudson)



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