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Brazil mid-month inflation undershoots forecasts ahead of presidential runoff

October 23, 2026 8:08 AM EDT

Customers buy food at the Sao Paulo’s Municipal Market in Sao Paulo, Brazil, September 2, 2026. REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini

SAO PAULO, Oct ‌23 (Reuters) - Brazil's ​IPCA-15 ​consumer price index rose 0.32% in the month to mid-October, government statistics agency IBGE ‌said on Friday, down from 0.70% in the ⁠previous month and below the 0.43% increase expected by economists ‌in a Reuters poll.

Prices ‌in Latin America's largest economy rose 4.62% in the 12 months through mid-October, IBGE added, up from ​4.47% in the previous month but also below economists' forecast of a 4.73% increase.

• Monthly rise ⁠driven by a 0.88% increase in food and beverage prices; personal ​expenses climbed 0.55%, while housing costs eased 0.1%

• Data published ahead of a tight presidential ​runoff between right-wing Senator Flavio ‌Bolsonaro, who led the first round, and leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da ⁠Silva

• Brazil's central bank targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points

• Policymakers will meet again on ⁠November 3-4 after delivering a fifth consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate ​cut last month to 13.75%

• The bank has kept its options open ahead of the November meeting while pointing to ‌firmer signs of an economic slowdown

• Easing core inflation strengthens the case for further ‌rate cuts, but the runoff is an important ⁠risk as fiscal credibility ‌remains a concern, ​said Pantheon Macroeconomics chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia

(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Isabel ‌Teles)



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