Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro neck and neck in second‑round poll
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Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a ministerial meeting at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, March 31, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado
SAO PAULO, April 27 (Reuters) - Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a simulated runoff for this year's presidential election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday.
• Leftist Lula would receive 46% of the vote in a second-round matchup, compared with 45% for right-wing Bolsonaro.
• In a March survey, they were tied at 46% each.
• In three first-round simulations, Lula was seen capturing 41% of the vote, while Flavio would take between 36% and 38%, depending on other candidates.
• In Brazil, if no candidate gets more than 50% of valid votes, the two frontrunners go to a second-round vote, which has happened in every election since 2002.
• Markets have tracked polls closely since imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son Flavio, 44, in December.
• The 80-year-old Lula, who defeated the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, will seek a fourth non-consecutive term as president.
• Nexus surveyed 2,028 people between April 24-26. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.
(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo;Editing by Alison Williams)
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