Argentina expected to start 2026 with trade surplus, continuing trend: Reuters poll

By Walter Bianchi ‌and Jorge ​Otaola

BUENOS ​AIRES, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Argentina likely registered a trade surplus of $900 million in ‌January, according to median forecasts of analysts polled ⁠by Reuters, citing a strong rise in exports alongside ‌a decline in imports.

Estimates ‌from 11 local and foreign analysts forecast an average positive trade balance of $651.8 million for ​the first month of 2026.

The country had posted a positive balance of $1.89 billion in ⁠December and closed 2025 with a surplus of $11.29 billion.

"The January ​balance is explained by an 11.6% year-on-year increase in exports compared to a 5.2% ​drop in imports," said ‌Ivan Cachanosky, chief economist at the Buenos Aires-based Liberty and Progress Foundation.

According ⁠to the poll, Argentina is expected to mark 26 consecutive months with a favorable trade balance when ⁠the official data is published by the national statistics agency ​on Thursday.

Libertarian President Javier Milei, who assumed power in December 2023, has dramatically reduced the country's inflation from ‌double digits when he took office to under 3% last January and ‌has boosted exports by easing currency controls, ⁠including from the country's ‌major grains sector.

(Reporting ​by Walter Bianchi and Jorge Otaola; Writing by Leila Miller; Editing by Anil ‌D'Silva)

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