TrueCar (TRUE) Sees U.S. Auto Sales Revenue up 15.4% in Dec.

January 5, 2016 8:21 AM EST

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales reached a record high for the month of $58 billion in December, up 15.4 percent from a year ago, capping a year of revenue and unit sales peaks. December marked the 24th consecutive month of record-setting revenue for the auto industry.

Despite a likely increase in incentive spending, robust sales and higher average transaction prices helped automakers post a $7.7 billion gain in revenue versus December 2014.

As previously announced, TrueCar projects that sales of new cars and light trucks grew by 12.8 percent last month.

“This revenue figure is a remarkable conclusion to a historic year for auto sales,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s vice president of industry insights. “Looking ahead, automakers are in an excellent position to kick off 2016. Interest rates remain low, the employment outlook is strong and Millennials continue to enter the market in greater numbers, supporting our expectation of 18 million new vehicle sales this year.”

TrueCar estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $34,081 in December, up 2.4 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit rose by $114 to $3,063. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 9 percent, up from 8.9 percent a year ago.

“Average transaction prices topped $34,000 for the first time ever last month,” said Stacey Doyle, TrueCar’s senior industry analyst. “A rich mix of luxury vehicles and full-size pickups helped fuel this increase. We expect average transaction prices in 2016 to rise at a similar pace, around 2 percent.”

Full-size pickups were popular among consumers on the TrueCar platform. Ford’s F-Series, FCA’s Ram and the Chevrolet Silverado all made the top 10 models last month as the automakers continue to fight for market share in this popular category. While F-Series remains the best-selling pickup this year, Silverado gained 2.2 percentage points of market share in the full-size pickup segment compared to last year.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Dec. 2015

Forecast

Dec. 2014 Nov. 2015

Percent

Change vs.

Dec. 2014

Percent

Change vs.

Nov. 2015

BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,898 $47,873 $50,918 8.4% 1.9%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $59,640 $56,681 $59,410 5.2% 0.4%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $33,539 $32,469 $33,327 3.3% 0.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $35,663 $34,333 $35,064 3.9% 1.7%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $37,713 $36,486 $36,176 3.4% 4.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $28,388 $27,471 $27,953 3.3% 1.6%
Hyundai $23,671 $24,014 $23,449 -1.4% 0.9%
Kia $24,121 $24,135 $24,021 -0.1% 0.4%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $28,282 $27,395 $27,965 3.2% 1.1%
Subaru $27,727 $27,178 $27,719 2.0% 0.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $32,333 $31,848 $31,511 1.5% 2.6%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $40,756 $37,706 $39,266 8.1% 3.8%
Industry $34,081 $33,297 $33,310 2.4% 2.3%

TrueCar estimates the average incentive for light vehicles in December will increase $114, or 3.9 percent, from a year ago, and decreasing $13, or 0.4 percent, from November 2015.

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer

Dec. 2015

Forecast

Dec. 2014 Nov. 2015

Percent

Change vs.

Dec. 2014

Percent

Change vs.

Nov. 2015

BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,019 $5,733 $5,012 -12.4% 0.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $4,712 $5,693 $4,870 -17.2% -3.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $3,553 $3,185 $3,523 11.5% 0.9%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $3,162 $3,093 $3,238 2.2% -2.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $3,710 $3,509 $3,813 5.7% -2.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,847 $2,241 $1,826 -17.6% 1.1%
Hyundai $2,163 $1,731 $2,184 24.9% -1.0%
Kia $2,997 $2,748 $2,990 9.1% 0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $3,716 $3,672 $3,746 1.2% -0.8%
Subaru $582 $769 $574 -24.3% 1.5%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,284 $1,965 $2,357 16.2% -3.1%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,506 $2,683 $3,533 30.7% -0.7%
Industry $3,063 $2,949 $3,076 3.9% -0.4%

This month’s ratio of incentive to ATP for light vehicles was 9 percent, up 1.5 percent from December 2014, and down 2.7 percent from November 2015, based on TrueCar analysis. Subaru, Daimler and Honda show the most improvement in ATP ratio in December versus the year-earlier month.

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer

Dec. 2015

Forecast

Dec. 2014 Nov. 2015

Percent

Change vs.

Dec. 2014

Percent

Change vs.

Nov. 2015

BMW (BMW, Mini) 9.7% 12.0% 9.8% -19.2% -1.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 7.9% 10.0% 8.2% -21.3% -3.6%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 10.6% 9.8% 10.6% 8.0% 0.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 8.9% 9.0% 9.2% -1.6% -4.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 9.8% 9.6% 10.5% 2.3% -6.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 6.5% 8.2% 6.5% -20.2% -0.4%
Hyundai 9.1% 7.2% 9.3% 26.7% -1.9%
Kia 12.4% 11.4% 12.4% 9.1% -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% -2.0% -1.9%
Subaru 2.1% 2.8% 2.1% -25.8% 1.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.1% 6.2% 7.5% 14.5% -5.6%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 8.6% 7.1% 9.0% 20.9% -4.4%
Industry 9.0% 8.9% 9.2% 1.5% -2.7%

Total Net Revenue

Manufacturer

Dec. 2015

Forecast

Dec. 2014

Percent

Change vs.

Dec. 2014

BMW (BMW, Mini) $2,719,464,266 $2,307,574,346 17.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $2,653,960,124 $2,169,181,870 22.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $7,824,631,230 $6,320,837,637 23.8%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $8,534,154,088 $7,531,595,877 13.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $11,604,289,455 $10,014,786,738 15.9%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $4,306,520,192 $3,771,246,351 14.2%
Hyundai $1,737,478,395 $1,549,071,098 12.2%
Kia $1,418,312,976 $1,100,242,245 28.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $3,911,464,907 $3,213,926,610 21.7%
Subaru $1,441,782,856 $1,356,807,294 6.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $7,740,473,025 $6,849,135,336 13.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $2,127,440,595 $2,153,465,072 -1.2%
Industry $57,923,375,721 $50,189,866,683 15.4%


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