XP Inc.: Brazil's Growth Outlook Improves Despite Global Uncertainty

XP Releases Latest Edition of Its Brazil Macro Monthly Report

SÃO PAULO, April 22, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- XP Inc. (Nasdaq: XP), a leading, technology-driven platform and trusted provider of financial services in Brazil, has released its latest Brazil Macro Monthly research report, which projects a more optimistic trajectory for the Brazilian economy in 2025 and 2026. Despite global uncertainty, XP's economists have revised their GDP growth forecasts upward to 2.3% in 2025 (from 2.0%) and 1.5% in 2026 (from 1.0%).

The new forecasts reflect strong job market performance, resilient household income, and recent stimulus measures introduced by the federal government. These include additional funding for the "Minha Casa Minha Vida" housing program, payroll-deductible credit expansion, and fiscal incentives targeting low and middle-income households.

"Although external risks are elevated, Brazil's domestic momentum remains strong," said Caio Megale, Chief Economist at XP. "Fiscal stimulus and a robust labor market are providing important buffers, but persistent inflation pressures mean monetary policy will have to stay tight for longer."

Key highlights from XP's macro report include:

• Inflation forecast held at 6.0% for 2025, with 2026 revised up to 4.7%, reflecting higher growth expectations and the likely inflationary impact of income tax reform.
• BRL forecast maintained at 6.00 per USD by year-end, though risks remain tied to global trade disruptions and commodity price volatility. 
• Fiscal balance challenges ahead, with XP projecting the government will need to raise an additional BRL 110 billion (approx. USD 18.3 billion) in revenue to meet the 2026 surplus target.

The report also underscores the uncertain international environment — particularly the impact of rising U.S. tariffs and a weaker dollar. While these dynamics have so far supported emerging market currencies, including the Brazilian Real, XP warns that risk aversion could return if global recession fears materialize.

"Monetary policy is doing the heavy lifting," added Megale. "But to achieve a sustained decrease in inflation and lower interest rates in the coming years, Brazil will need greater clarity on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms."

About XP Inc.

XP Inc. is one of the largest independent financial institutions in Brazil, owner of the brands XP, Rico, Clear, XP Educação, InfoMoney, among others. XP Inc. has over 4.6 million active clients and more than R$ 1.2 trillion in assets under custody. For the past 23 years, the company has been transforming the Brazilian financial market to improve people's lives. XP Inc. was a pioneer in the market with its network of investment advisors, which is now the largest in the country, with over 18,200 professionals. For more information, visit https://www.xpinc.com 

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SOURCE XP Inc.