The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Ticked Up in September

NEW YORK, Nov. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) rose in September to 106.84, from an upwardly revised 106.68 in August. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"The ETI rebounded slightly in September but it remained close to last month's reading, which was the lowest since the pandemic," said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. "Delayed employment data showed that the labor market was still healthy before the government shutdown began on October 1."

Among ETI components, Initial claims for unemployment insurance held steady in September, while the share of involuntary part-time workers also remained flat at 17% for the third consecutive month. Measures of economic activity, including Real manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production, also held steady in July and August releases.

"While layoffs and unemployment remain low, uncertainty persists," Barnes said. "September's ETI reflected subdued business and consumer confidence that has not meaningfully improved."

The share of small firms that report jobs are 'not able to be filled right now' was flat in September at 32%, remaining at its post-pandemic low point. JOLTS job openings rebounded in August, rising by 19,000 following consecutive monthly declines. The share of consumers who report 'jobs are hard to get'—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—fell to 18.2% in September from 19.1% in August, improving modestly in the month.

"The low-hire, low-fire environment continued in September," concluded Barnes. "However, the next Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report, rescheduled for December 16, may indicate negative impacts on the labor market due to the 43-day federal government shutdown and persistent economic uncertainty."

September's increase in the Employment Trends Index was a result of positive contributions from five of its eight components: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get, Job Openings, the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production. Whereas the following two components contributed negatively: the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry and Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance. One component was flat in September: the Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)***
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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SOURCE The Conference Board