The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in December

NEW YORK, Jan. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in December to 104.27, from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"The ETI slid further in December, reflecting low labor market confidence in the outlooks for hiring and job-finding," said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board.

The share of consumers who report "jobs are hard to get"—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—rose to 20.8% in December to reach the highest point since early 2021. The share of small firms reporting that jobs are 'not able to be filled right now' held at 33% in December, near the post-pandemic low reached in July. The share of involuntary part-time workers rose in December to 19.4%, the highest rate since early 2021.

"The state of the US labor market was little changed at the end of 2025, as the low-hire, low-fire dynamic persisted, allowing most Americans to continue to work," added Barnes. "Nonetheless, the ETI portends smaller payroll employment gains ahead."

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose marginally in December, but that followed consecutive monthly declines in October and November. Job openings declined by 303,000 in November, falling to the lowest level since 2020. Real manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production were steady during the final months of 2025, but surveys of manufacturing activity and employment across goods-producing sectors continued to contract.

December's decrease in the Employment Trends Index was a result of negative contributions from six of its eight components: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production. Only Job Openings contributed positively, and the Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now was unchanged.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS) ⴕ
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)***

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
***Statistical imputation for three most recent months (due to data release delays)
ⴕ Note missing October 2025 value for Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers estimated using linear interpolation

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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SOURCE The Conference Board